Episode 37 – Quantitative Risk

When I claim that the chance of my front-lawn rocket exploding is “ten to the minus six”, just what does that mean? Does it mean the same thing to me as it does to you? Does it mean anything at all? How can I misuse scope, timeframes, exposure and units to make something obviously dangerous meet numeric safety targets? With quantitative risk assessment I can mislead others, but am I danger of misleading myself as well?

Resources

Most content in this episode is based on my own publications. You can access copies at ResearchGate.

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Episode 36 – Texas City

This episode features the BP Texas City Refinery explosion of 2005. Unlike most accidents featured on the show, it is a story
of management fully aware of danger as a situation tumbled towards disaster. Knowing you have a problem may be an important part of fixing it – but only part.

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Episode 35 – Independence and Nimrod XV230

What is independence? Why does it matter for safety? Why can’t we have perfect independence, and why wouldn’t we want it even if we could have it? Are there times independence is an actively bad thing? And what happens when independence is vital, but just isn’t in place … ?

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