When I claim that the chance of my front-lawn rocket exploding is “ten to the minus six”, just what does that mean? Does it mean the same thing to me as it does to you? Does it mean anything at all? How can I misuse scope, timeframes, exposure and units to make something obviously dangerous meet numeric safety targets? With quantitative risk assessment I can mislead others, but am I danger of misleading myself as well?
Most content in this episode is based on my own publications. You can access copies at ResearchGate.